By Paul E. L. T. Borrow-Longain
During the week of the 13th of March 2023 the political leaders of the United Kingdom, the Commonwealth of Australia, and the United States of America met in California to finalise the AUKUS pact.
The meeting presented an opportunity to review the opportunities and challenges this significant agreement will create in the field of geopolitics, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, which is becoming increasingly important due to rising tensions with China.
AUKUS is best described as a trilateral security pact between the Commonwealth of Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America, which was originally announced on the 15th of September 2021.
While international focus appears to be concentrated upon one aspect of the pact, namely the sale and manufacture of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, AUKUS is also concerned with increasing cooperation in the fields of advanced cyber security, artificial intelligence and autonomy, quantum technologies, undersea capabilities, hypersonic and counter-hypersonic defence systems, electronic warfare, innovation and information sharing.
It is perhaps self-evident that there are a number of similarities between AUKUS and the intelligence-sharing “Five Eyes” alliance, which the aforementioned countries belong to, along with Canada and New Zealand. There is therefore potential for AUKUS to be expanded (in terms of member nations at least) in the future.
The International Centre for Defence and Security has been quoted as saying the pact is “a powerful statement about the priority of the Indo-Pacific” and “that the larger institutional groupings aren’t acting with the common purpose and speed that the current strategic and technological environment demands.”
As the Indo-Pacific region is as important to Chinese interests as it is to AUKUS member nations, it is reasonable to assume that the political leadership in Beijing have significant concerns with the pact. Their government has accused the members of having a “cold-war mentality”due to their belief that the formation of the pact is in no small part because of China’s status as an increasingly assertive emerging superpower.
A Question of Regional Security
Why is security in the Indo-Pacific region of such high importance? It is clearly a response to China’s overtures to various smaller nations in the region to provide infrastructure which could be used in future to advance the Chinese political leaders’ ambitions.
The Commonwealth of Australia currently operates a fleet of six Collins class submarines, powered by diesel-electric generators, and these are getting close to the end of their operational lifetime, potentially causing a military capability gap for the country. Until September 2021, and the announcement of the treaty between Australia, the UK, and the US, Australia was in the process of acquiring nuclear submarines from the Republic of France. This deal was terminated, causing some short-term friction with France.
Instead, the expertise required by Australia to build and operate their new submarines will be provided in part by the United Kingdom. This should be seen as an important trade opportunity as the UK looks to enhance its Commonwealth relationships in our post-Brexit world. While the submarines are to be constructed in Adelaide, South Australia, a degree of technological capability will be provided by the United Kingdom and the United States.
The submarine aspect of AUKUS pact, which will have three main stages, will attempt to bridge a capability gap for Australia in the 2030s, after its Collins boats are decommissioned and before the deployment of the AUKUS boats around 2040.The agreement promises additional jobs and technology-sharing across the three countries over several decades. The cost to Australia to fill this military capability gap is significant, with independent estimates putting the costs of building and supplying at least eight submarines over 30 years as high as A$125bn.
With the increase in Chinese engagement, and their belief that the Indo-Pacific region is “home territory”, it’s clear to see why the western world considers an enhanced military presence in the region advisable – that presence requires an increased number of submarines.
The governments of Japan and the Commonwealth of Australia have previously announced further cooperation between their air forces, including stationing aircraft in each other’s countries. The United States provides Japan with its F35 fighter aircraft,so one can argue that, although not a direct party to the AUKUS pact, Japan has a stake in the game.
The AUKUS agreement is already seen by some observers as a clear signal that the member nations wish to present a united front to counteract potential military engagement in the region by China. This bears some similarities to the situation in the Northern hemisphere, where NATO was established to counteract the military ambition of the USSR, and continues to exercise this function against the Russian Federation. Could these two independent regional security initiatives (the AUKUS agreement and military cooperation between Australia and Japan) eventually evolve into a “NATO for the Pacific”? I would argue that there is this potential, and that such an organisation is worthy of further discussion.
A Question of Trade
AUKUS is not exclusively a regional security pact. It has trade and investment opportunities and consequences also. Any organisation which is concerned with regional security and which requires defence expenditure clearly creates economic opportunities for companies based in the member nations.
An example of such an economic opportunity was evident in Monday’s announcement that Rolls-Royce will provide the required reactors for Australia’s next-generation nuclear- powered submarines, therefore creating thousands of jobs at the Rolls-Royce plant in the East Midlands. The President of the company, Steve Carlier, reportedly told the BBC that they “ are delighted to be asked to play our part in delivering this element of the AUKUS agreement”, and further added that: “For over 60 years, we have provided the power to the Royal Navy’s nuclear submarines and we are proud to be playing a critical role in helping Australia acquire their own nuclear propulsion submarine capability.”
AUKUS is but one avenue the British government is taking to enhance trade and investment ties with the Indo-Pacific region. The government has previously applied to join the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), a Pacific free trade area. Unlike the European Union (EU), the TPP has no aspirations to form a political union, and is exclusively concerned with trade and investment promotion. President Trump, which in office, withdrew the United States involvement in this free trade area. It was relaunched as a smaller group, the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and currently includes 11 members, with the United Kingdom and China both having applied to join.
The implications of AUKUS on member nations
Each of the member nations will be affected by AUKUS in different ways. The following is an overview of several of these effects.
The three nations will each be required to increase their individual investment in their defence sector. While both the United Kingdom and the United States of America are nearing capacity in relation to their own domestic orders, their production capacity will need to be expanded. The UK shipyards are busy carrying out work related to the Dreadnought programme, the new fleet of nuclear submarines which will carry the country’s nuclear weapons. In the US they are building 17 Virginia-class submarines for use by the United States Navy. The problem is slightly different for Australia, where the primary concern will be the availability of a qualified workforce. This availability is expected to present a trade opportunity for the UK who are well placed to provide technical capabilities, while building occurs in Australia.
The Hon Pat Conroy, Australia’s Minister for Procurement stated to the Financial Times that “It’s not about any nation buying more weapons platforms off another, it’s about building the industrial capability of all three countries”.
As with any new programme, let alone a multinational programme of this size, importance and complexity, the level of new investment is going to be significant. According to the British-based consultancy Agency Partners, the total programme cost could reach AUS$125 billion, once the cost of each submarine is combined with weapons, combat systems, and the infrastructure required to manufacture the vessels.
According to an analyst at the aforementioned consultancy, a “big part of the cost of Australia building this boat themselves, alongside the investment in production facilities, is the learning curve”. This presents a potential opportunity for the United Kingdom to pursue in providing training and education to Australian shipyard workers.
It is expected that AUKUS submarines will not enter service until at least 2040, which presents a critical security gap for Australia. Therefore, the US has agreed to initially deploy a number of their Virginia-class submarines to Australia, and will later sell Australia up to five Virginia-class submarines, in order to ensure Australia continues to have a viable submarine warfare fleet between 2023 and 2040.
While the United Kingdom and Australia, and the United Kingdom and the United States, have a longstanding history of working closely together, the same can’t be said for the three working as partners with each other. The US rightly protects their defence capabilities from other nations, even those who are allied with them. Concerns remain around the so-called AUKUS second pillar which is concerned with sharing knowledge around artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons and undersea capabilities, due to the International Traffic in Arms Regulations.
Three Leaders, One Vision
When making their announcements the leaders of the United Kingdom, the United States, and Australia made it clear they were speaking with a common vision in mind
The British Prime Minister announced that the government will increase defence spending by almost £5bn over the next two years to counter emerging threats from hostile states (which includes China) with £3bn of this being dedicated to AUKUS.
President Biden announced that effective immediately both Royal Navy and United States Navy personnel will start training members of the Royal Australian Navy in operating nuclear-powered submarines. This is critically important as Australia isn’t a nuclear capacity nation, and is committed to remaining so.
The Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese noted that AUKUS is the largest commitment in their nation’s history. He proudly pointed out that this will be an Australian-built and maintained fleet, operated by the Royal Australian Navy, using US nuclear knowledge which has only ever been shared twice in history. He went further by saying that across the country individuals are increasing their knowledge of nuclear-powered technologies, with the potential to significantly impact sectors and businesses in all states and territories – with innovation leading the way.
By working together the three nations will design and manufacture a new type of nuclear-powered submarine called SSN-AUKUS, with both the United Kingdom and Australia using them to make up their submarine fleet. In choosing this particular name for the class of submarine the intentions of these three allied nations to present a united and cooperative front could not be clearer.
I, for one, welcome that vision.
